ABNA24 - While the two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US is already combustible due to Washington’s blockade on Iran and the continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon, a new provocative move by Trump in the Strait of Hormuz risks sinking the region in a fresh conflict.
On Monday, the US President Donald Trump announced what he called Project Freedom operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz which has been closed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli war two months ago. The move is aimed at wresting the control of the key waterway from Iran in association with some countries through escorting the ships, a measure obviously violating clearly stated Iranian red lines.
In a message, Trump in a tone that tried to project power while failing to hide worry said that a number of countries that have no role in the Middle East conflict have called on the US to help to take their ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. He described these countries "innocent" and "neutral", vowing a safe passage to their vessels. But the distance e between words and actions soon showed itself.
Despite announcing the implementation of the so-called Freedom Project for early Monday, data on vessel traffic and intelligence monitoring reveal that the initiative has remained merely a slogan, with no changes in shipping patterns. Meanwhile, the US took a separate action, compelled to return the previously seized Iranian ship, "Toska," to Iran. This setback not only underscores the operational complexities of such efforts but also reflects the realistic understanding among international actors of the risks involved in engaging in direct confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's strong reaction
Since Trump's operation can escalate the tensions in case of full implementation, Iran's military and political officials have issued stark warnings.
In one of the most important reactions, Major General Ali Abdullahi, the commander of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Military Command, warned that should the American navy sale close to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will not hesitate to strike them.
"We have repeatedly announced that the security of the Strait of Hormuz is protected by the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and under any circumstances, safe passage is possible only through coordination with [Iran's] armed forces. We will strongly hold and protect the Strait of Hormuz and announce to all commercial vessels and tankers that they should avoid any navigation through the strait without coordination for their security not to be compromised," the top Iranian general said.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei fired back at Trump’s remarks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that the waterway remains under the Islamic Republic’s control.
Beyond the verbal warnings, Iranian forces on the ground showed they were ready to counter any enemy adventurism. According to the Iranian Army’s public relations office, a firm warning and swift action by the navy barred US destroyers from entering the Strait of Hormuz. In a related development, local news sources in southern Iran reported that two missiles were fired at a US Navy frigate.
American officials tried to project that their freedom-of-navigation operation had succeeded, claiming two American commercial vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz without incident. But the IRGC’s public relations office rejected those claims outright, stating: “No commercial vessel or tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. American officials’ claims are baseless and an outright lie. Any maritime movements violating Guard naval principles will face serious consequences, and violator vessels will be stopped by force.”
Tehran officials have repeatedly and emphatically made clear that until the US and the Israeli regime permanently end their war and fully lift the naval blockade, transit through the Strait of Hormuz is a red line, warning that crossing without permission will bring severe repercussions.
Those blunt warnings alone were enough to make even major European powers, despite being mired in a deepening energy crisis, think twice about approaching this vital chokepoint. Experience has shown that Iran’s armed forces show no flexibility when it comes to the security of this waterway.
In such tense military and political climate, Trump’s recycled rhetoric found little traction internationally. French President Emmanuel Macron made it crystal clear yet again that France would not take part in US push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
As Trump’s futile initiative got underway, UAE ports were hit by multiple missiles and drones. The UAE Defense Ministry claimed it had tracked four cruise missiles launched toward Emirati territory from Iran. Meanwhile, Britain's Marine Trade Operations reported an incident in waters north of Dubai, saying it had received a report of an incident 36 nautical miles north of the city. Some reports indicated an attack on oil industry facilities in Fujairah, with images showing thick smoke rising over the emirate.
Significance of Strait of Hormuz
Though Trump tries to downplay the significance of the Strait of Hormuz to the US, the constant moves and his insistence on reopening the key trade waterway talk against his claims. Strait of Hormuz is not just a geographic gateway but also one of the most vital arteries of world's energy flow. It is a place where about 20 percent of the whole global energy trade and so any disruption can send waves of shocks to the world markets.
Oil prices spiking to $120 a barrel in recent days are just one example of this extreme vulnerability, and that figure could climb much higher, fast. Many analysts warn that if the strait remains closed for another two months and consuming countries drain their strategic reserves, prices could even hit $200 a barrel. That is a scenario that would slam the global economy with an unprecedented shock.
In this context, Trump’s repeated talk of military options is less a display of strength and more a reflection of the mounting domestic and international pressure his administration faces over the energy crisis. Meanwhile, outlets like The New York Times have reported that Trump is under growing pressure from his own allies to find a way to de-escalate tensions and reopen energy transit routes.
So, Trump is trying to use hard power once again to pry open this vital chokepoint, but the realities on the ground and global sensitivities suggest such a move would be far costlier and more complicated than his political rhetoric lets on.
Rising gasoline prices in the US, from $2 to over $4 per gallon in recent days, have become a serious headache for the White House, especially with congressional elections upcoming. Fuel shortages for airplanes on both sides of the Atlantic have created a cascade of economic pressures, forcing governments to act. The US airline Spirit Airlines announced it would shut down after 34 years of operation, citing the sharp rise in fuel costs driven by the war with Iran, a stark reminder of just how deeply the energy crisis is cutting into every corner of the economy.
Failed experience
Though Trump repeats his claims that the US managed to break the Iranian seizure of the Strait of Hormuz, this policy has proven a failure. At the height of war, Trump announced that he could secure shipping in the strait thanks to his naval escort of the vessels, but the plan turned into a failure story following warnings by the Pentagon’s officials about infeasibility of the plan.
What stands out most today is the widening gap between political rhetoric and economic reality. Major shipping companies and oil market players are steering clear of Trump’s aggressive tone, opting instead for caution. Rather than betting on political promises, they are monitoring conditions on the ground and adjusting their moves based on Iran’s actions and policies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising insurance rates for ships tell the same story. Insurers, traditionally highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, are setting their premiums based on real-world assessments of regional security, not on Trump’s social media posts or statements. That gap shows just how far market perceptions of the Strait of Hormuz have drifted from Washington’s official narrative.
Meanwhile, major global powers are going their own way. Instead of waiting for Washington to pursue a confrontational strategy to reopen the strait, countries like India, Japan, and France are trying to find a lasting solution for their vessels’ passage through diplomacy and engagement with Iran. That approach not only reflects their pragmatism but also signals a gradual shift in global power dynamics, one where even traditional US allies are unwilling to foot the bill for another military adventure.
Finally, it can be said that what is raised as Project Freedom by Trump is actually an instrument to manage public opinion and a response to home pressures rather than an operational plan to reopen the strait. Conversely, the reality of the Strait of Hormuz as one of the most critical waterways in the world demonstrates that it will be determined and managed not by strong rhetoric and threats but within the framework of the balance of power Iran has introduced to the region. So, any hasty move in the region will have consequences beyond a simple regional crisis.
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